World Cup 2026 betting predictions: Best long-shot picks and sleepers

We’ve yet to see a genuine long shot win the World Cup.Italy’s triumph in 1982 was the biggest surprise in the tournament’s history, at least according to the bookmakers, and The Azzurri were just 18/1 that year.

Thirteen of the last 15 champions boasted single-digit odds, with Italy again upsetting the odds as an 11/1 winner in 2006.Now, just because we haven’t seen a dark horse lift the trophy doesn’t mean it’s been a fool’s errand to back one to do so.The last World Cup saw two shockers eliminated in the semifinals: Morocco, which was a 200/1 long shot to win it all before the tournament, and Croatia (50/1).Croatia got even closer to the trophy in 2018, finishing as runners-up to France despite going off with 33/1 odds. Kockasti were also semi-finalists in 1998, when they began the tournament as 66/1 outsiders.In 2010, it was Uruguay that gatecrashed the final four as a 100/1 roughie.Eight years earlier, we saw a pair of triple-digit long shots make it to the semifinals: South Korea (200/1) and Turkey (100/1).Who will be this year’s surprise package? A handful of teams stick out.One of the most exciting watches on the international stage, Japan plays a unique style of soccer.

While most managers tend to play things conservatively in international tournaments because of the lack of practice time and high stakes, Samurai Blue goes for broke.They’re an all-action pressing machine, and everybody is on board.Cohesion and chemistry are hard to quantify, but it is incredibly important in the World Cup, and every player on Japan has bought into Hajime Moriyasu’s system.

It doesn’t hurt that Moriyasu has been in this post since 2018, making him one of the longest-tenured managers in the sport.Japan is in a tough group with the Netherlands, Sweden, and Tunisia, but they’re capable of beating anybody (just ask Spain and Germany) in this field, and could be real noisemakers this summer.It’s easy to waffle back and forth on the United States ahe...