Commentary: California's economy is now the 4th largest in the world ... or is it?

Forget the wildfires, earthquakes, water shortages and all the other factors that place the California dream in doubt, according to pundits.Gov.

Gavin Newsom has some good news, citing federal and international statistics: California has just moved up a notch to become the world’s fourth-largest economy.That happened because the state’s gross domestic product was measured at $4.1 trillion as of the end of 2024, eclipsing Japan ($4.02 trillion).All that stands between California and the top spot are the United States ($29.18 trillion), China ($18.74 trillion) and Germany ($4.65 trillion).“California isn’t just keeping pace with the world — we’re setting the pace,” Newsom declared in announcing the latest figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the International Monetary Fund.

“Our economy is thriving because we invest in people, prioritize sustainability and believe in the power of innovation.”Newsom made some good points in his announcement, citing the state’s national leadership in high technology, agriculture and access to venture funding, among other spheres.But he also voiced a cautionary note about the Trump administration’s “reckless tariff policies,” which are already pointing to a steep downturn in imports landed at the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles.California isn’t just keeping pace with the world—we’re setting the pace.— Gov.

Gavin NewsomWord of California’s somersault over the fading Japan generated coverage in newspapers coast to coast, cable news and even as far afield as the BBC.None of this reportage, however, addressed the most pertinent question about the feat, which is: So what?Some of the reports did qualify California’s ranking, by acknowledging that it would be germane if California were a country, not a state.

But they didn’t go very deeply, if at all, into why that should make a difference.So let’s take a closer look.Get the latest from Michael HiltzikCommentary on economics and mor...