2025 Belmont Stakes predictions: Three picks for Saturdays race at Saratoga
SARATOGA SPRINGS — The 2025 Belmont Stakes is being billed as a heavyweight fight between Sovereignty, the winner of the Kentucky Derby running out of the No.2 post, and Journalism, the Preakness winner and Derby runner-up running out of the No.
7 post. The oddsmakers could barely separate the two horses, identifying Journalism as the 8-5 favorite on the morning line, but putting Sovereignty right behind at 2-1. When you convert those odds to implied probabilities, you get a 38.5 percent chance that Journalism finishes first, and a 33.3 percent chance that we see Sovereignty in the winner’s circle. In other words, the odds are telling us that there’s nearly a 75 percent chance that the winner of this race will be one of the two favorites. That poses an interesting predicament for handicappers.Whom do you pick? And how do you best set up a betting card based on the horse you’re backing, whether it’s Journalism, Sovereignty or none of the above? If you think Journalism is going to be your winner … Journalism proved at the Preakness that he can win a race no matter what the horse racing gods throw at him.
He was bumped and squeezed at the quarter-turn at Pimlico, but fought his way through the chaos to nip Gosger for the win.It was a remarkable effort. He also ran an impressive race at the Derby, just to be passed by Sovereignty, who will be a threat to do so again on Saturday. The presence of Sovereignty in this field does change how I think Michael McCarthy and Umberto Rispoli will approach this race.
I think Rispoli will hold back Journalism a bit longer, preventing a repeat of what we saw at the Derby, where Sovereignty had enough runway to catch him. That kind of race setup would benefit No.6 Baeza, another stalker, and potentially No.
5 Crudo, who will likely be near the lead, but behind No.3 Rodriguez out of the gate. Trifecta box: 5-6-7. If you think Sovereignty is going to be your winner … The Kentucky Derby is always chaotic, bu...