Exclusive | Rep. Mike Lawler has better shot at defeating Gov. Kathy Hochul than Elise Stefanik: poll

Rep.Mike Lawler would have a better shot than Rep.

Elise Stefanik in defeating Democratic incumbent Gov.Kathy Hochul in next year’s gubernatorial race, a bombshell new poll claims.Lawler would fare better among moderates than Stefanik as both Republicans eye a possible race against Hochul in 2026, according to the survey conducted by Brock McCleary, founder of Harper Polling.Hochul leads Lawler 48%-41% on the initial ballot, but the race becomes a dead heat when participants were informed of their records, the poll showed.

Hochul was still ahead, but by a margin of only 44%-43.4%, the poll said.The incumbent governor meanwhile leads Stefanik 50.1%-38.8% on initial ballots and 46%-42.6% after participants were informed of their records, according to the survey results, which were obtained by The Post.Lawler has an advantage compared to Stefanik in key downstate areas, the poll showed — with Lawler ahead of Hochul by 20 points on Long Island, while Hochul is up by slightly leaner 15 percentage points, the data showed.Stefanik leads Hochul 51%-36% on the island while Lawler leads 55%-35%, according to the poll.In the Hudson Valley, Hochul leads Stefanik by 13 points, but is only 5 points ahead of Lawyer, who is from the lower Hudson’s Rockland County.

The poll shows Stefanik trailing Hochul 40%-53% with Lawler in a much tighter race but still down 44%-49%.Interestingly, the poll finds Lawler running as strongly as Stefanik on her upstate turf.Stefanik has a 1-percentage point lead over Hochul — 49% to 48% — in the Albany/North Country/Central New York that includes her congressional district.But Lawler also leads Hochul by a point, 48%-47% in the same region.In the Western New York- Buffalo region, Stefanik has a 2-point edge over Hochul, 45%-43%.Likewise, Lawler leads Hochul by 3 points in the Buffalo region — 47% to 44%.Hochul is 41 points ahead of Stefanik in New York City, but 35 points ahead of Lawler, according to the poll.“Self-identified modera...