Keep the focus on stopping Irans nukes regime change is too risky a game

Regime change in Iran may wind up happening as a result of the current conflict, but it’s absolutely to be avoided as a goal.In particular, don’t let Israel’s difficulties in completely destroying Tehran’s nuclear program lead to mission creep or any moving of the goalposts — even though the central problem is the ayatollahs who’d have their fingers on the buttons.No civilized human of good will would shed a tear for the Islamic Republic, but Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya have shown the perils of ousting an entire regime without clear, practical ideas for what comes next — and that our ability to steer another country’s course is extremely limited.Trying to impose the shah’s heir, or any group of exiles, as a new government seems guaranteed to fail, as Washington doesn’t know enough (or can’t make effective use of what it does know) to pull off some miraculous coup.President Donald Trump certainly won’t be sending in US ground troops, nor will any Western nation so intervene; it’s hard to see even any of Iran’s neighbors taking that risk (though some might aim to bite off some bits of territory).Yet keeping reasonable order in Iran has to be a priority for the rest of the world: It’s not only a major oil and gas exporter in its own right, it’s positioned to shut off the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the planet’s energy now passes.Serious disorder in Iran, such as a civil war, risks destabilizing (among others) Iraq, Turkey and nuclear-armed Pakistan — none of which is completely stable now.Meanwhile, Moscow and (especially) Beijing would be looking to guard their own interests, and spread their influence — more bad news for the West.All of this argues for Washington doing what it can to prevent the conflict from creating a total power vacuum in Tehran.Subscribe to our daily Post Opinion newsletter! Please provide a valid email address.

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