Eye-popping analysis of Trumps win shows Democrats are in serious trouble

Democrats are right to be worried about the party’s shift to the left that Zohran Mamdani’s surprise victory in New York City’s mayoral primary implies.That’s because the party was already on the outs with a majority of American voters, according to newly released data from the Pew Research Institute.Pew conducts a biennial poll known as the Validated Voter Survey — considered one of the best ways to understand what happened in the prior election, because its survey results are cross-indexed with each state’s voter files.

Only respondents who are shown to have actually voted are counted.The headline results getting most of the media attention largely support prior findings from the 2024 exit polls and from Catalist, another gold-standard post-election analysis.Pew, like the other sources, finds Democrats hemorrhaged voter support among men, Hispanics and other non-white voters, costing Kamala Harris the presidency.The party’s loss of support among men is especially sharp among non-white men, according to Pew.President Trump’s victory margin among white men improved by 3 percentage points, from 17% to 20%, between 2020 and 2024.That is a strong improvement, but far from enough to explain why he went from losing by 4.5% in 2020 to winning by 1.5% in 2024.Rather, it was Trump’s gains among non-white men that were truly game-changing.He lost black men by only 54 points, a 21-point improvement from his 75-point defeat in 2020.He carried Hispanic men by 2 points, a 20-point improvement from his 18-point 2020 loss.He also gained 23 points among Asians and 29 points among voters of other races, gains that could not have occurred without huge increases with male voters.Progressives might point to Mamdani’s strong showing in Hispanic and Asian neighborhoods and argue that it shows his economic populism can win many of those voters back.But it’s worth noting that this showing comes among Democratic primary voters, a group well to the left of most America...