UFC 320 predictions: Best bets, full card picks, predictions for Saturday night
Arguably the best card top to bottom in the UFC this year… Welcome to UFC 320.Barring any pullouts or weight-cut misses, we have 14 fights on deck this weekend, with all of the prelims on ESPN+ beginning at 6 p.m.ET.Just five of the 14 fights are expected to end inside the distance for this card.A heavy favorite in the second go-around between these two, Magomed Ankalaev won a close decision last time he met Alex Pereira.Ankalaev won striking exchanges with arguably the best kickboxer in the world thanks to heavy forward pressure and the threat of a takedown.Although Pereira isn’t exactly a strong grappler– he began training complete MMA within the last 10 years – he was able to stop 11 takedown attempts from Ankalaev.If he can do that again, you’d expect him to win the striking in this matchup.I have a few concerns, though.
Pereira was able to stop the takedowns, but how realistic is that to happen again in this fight?I suspect Ankalaev gets better in the second fight.Now that he’s the champion, he should be even more motivated to use his usual domination tactics on the ground.There is danger involved in charging in for a takedown against an talented striker like Pereira, who has won by flying knee knockout in the past.Betting value-wise, there’s basically none on Ankalaev’s moneyline as a -290 favorite.
You could opt to poke Pereira by knockout at +300, but he’s been through too many wars for him to get my money.I’ll target an odd-ball prop – Ankalaev by submission is 16/1.He has never won by submission in the UFC, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t know how to do it.
Just a few months ago, Merab Dvalishvili had won by submission after never doing so in his UFC career either.Ankalaev can snatch someone’s neck for a rear-naked choke, and given the fact that Pereira isn’t exactly a stud on the mat, it’s worth a small bet.THE PLAY: Ankalaev by submission (16/1, BetRivers)The returning bantamweight champion, Dvalishvili, has ripped off...