NFL Week 15 predictions, best bets: Picks against the spread for every game

When you make a selection on every NFL game each week — for 32 seasons — you occasionally fall back on some principles.For example, one of those involved Daniel Jones, who the past two games tried to play on a broken leg.It’s a reasonable principle to pick against a guy with a broken leg when the opposing quarterback has two good ones.

We went 2-0 in those Colts fades, with Danny Dimes unfortunately going down for the season with a ruptured Achilles last week. Another principle is in play Sunday at MetLife Stadium when the 2-11 Giants play host to the 3-10 Commanders.The thought here is that you don’t lay points — 2.5 in this case — on a team that’s tied for the worst record in the NFL, has a seven-game losing streak and currently owns the No.

1 pick in next year’s draft.I’m not going to get into the “tank” aspects of this situation.I don’t believe the Giants are doing that.

The players certainly aren’t, and interim coach Mike Kafka would love to get the zero off the left side of his record.The Giants are trying — and they’re still the worst team in the NFL, at least by the draft order’s definition.The Commanders are equally atrocious.

They’ve lost eight in a row and are coming off a 31-0 loss at Minnesota in which Jayden Daniels made a failed comeback attempt.But in the two games before that, with Marcus Mariota under center, the Commanders lost by three points to the Dolphins and one to the Broncos, both in overtime. The traditional offensive and defensive numbers are similar, with the Giants having a slight edge.

The Commanders are a bit better in total DVOA, an all-encompassing metric.These are two sinking ships.

I can’t lay points in this game — on principle.The pick: Commanders +2.5. This line sat at Jaguars -4.5 on the lookahead but has steamed nine points on the Tyrod Taylor injury and news that Brady Cook will be making his first start.I’m struggling to see that much of a difference between the two quarterba...