Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come
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The federal government’s monthly releases of economic statistics — especially the inflation rate and growth as tracked by gross domestic product — have long occasioned partisan preening (or denunciation) and for a general public stock-taking of the health of the economy.Not this month.This time, they’re the occasion for doubt and confusion.On Dec.
18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation had fallen to an annual rate of 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September and well below the 3.1% consensus of economists.And on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product had shot up by a surprising 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 ended Sept.
30.The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives.— Zachary KarabellUnsurprisingly, the Trump administration and its Republican acolytes seized on the figures to boast about Trump’s economic policies.White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett proclaimed the inflation figure to be “an absolute blockbuster report.” He described the GDP figure as “a great Christmas present for the American people.”“America is winning again,” crowed House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after the GDP report.
He called it “the direct result of congressional Republicans and President Trump delivering policies that drive growth and expand opportunity for American families and workers.”Commentary on economics and more from a Pulitzer Prize winner.By continuing, you agree to our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy.
Um, not so fast.The economists whose jobs involve scrutinizing those statistics to glean what they really mean don’t view them as unalloyed support for Trumponomics.
Quite the contrary.Many see them as artifacts of the long government shutdown, which halted the collection of data that go into th...