Manhattan retail vacancies abound despite hype from brokers, biz districts

January is fantasy season for Manhattan’s retail-leasing scene.Leading brokerages and business improvement districts want us to believe that long-vacant storefronts are filling up like crazy and tenants who delay to make deals will be left out in the cold.However, what we see with our eyes is a situation much less cheery than institutional data suggest.JLL claims the “prime retail market closed 2025 at its tightest point on record, with availability falling to a historic low of 13.7%.”JLL defines “prime” not by a location’s size or suitability for retailing but by districts, such as upper Fifth Avenue, Herald Square and Soho.

The only one where vacancies are truly scarce is Soho.And should we celebrate a “mere” 13.7% vacancy rate citywide, if that figure is even accurate?The most optimistically skewed reports reveal many more dark storefronts than in the city which is New York’s chief rival on the global scene: London.

The vacancy rate across the British capital is just 6.8%, according to Avison Young.In a more efficient New York market before online shopping — and before developers built new retail space even as demand was falling or they re-developed older buildings to price previously $200-per-square-foot sites at $1,000 — empty storefronts were relatively few.And 13.7% vacancy is historically low? Look at old photos of Fifth Avenue and Times Square from as recently as the 1980s and you’ll see nary a “FOR RENT” sign.Today, CBRE tagged New York City storefront vacancies at 15% — which it hastened to point out is (duh) lower than it was during the peak of the pandemic.Like JLL, CBRE said that the largest new “retail” leases were for nontraditional uses.“F&B and Fitness Brands Lift the Market,” the company said.But it would be more truthful to say that food, fitness, laser salons and walk-in pet clinics only  saved the market from utter calamity.Retail brokers work as hard as their office-leasing counterparts and deserv...