UFC Mexico odds, predictions: Moreno vs. Kavanagh full picks for prelims, main card
Expect wild scenes this weekend when the UFC returns to Mexico.The promotion has long loved the fighting style and Mexican culture, holding fights in September for Mexican Independence Day on a nearly annual basis.This weekend, Mexico’s most popular fighter headlines again, as former champion Brandon Moreno battles in the main event against short-notice replacement Lone’er Kavanagh.Thirteen fights are scheduled for Saturday night, beginning at 5 p.m.ET.Of those 13, nine are expected to result in a finish, with just three projected to hit the scorecards.Lone’er Kavanagh is stepping up and taking this fight on short notice to fight another aging contender in Mexican legend Moreno.This is a solid buy-low spot on Kavanagh, as he’s a talented and very strong kicker, which I think could give Moreno some trouble in this fight.
Moreno could look to grapple, which is probably why he’s favored, as well as having the hometown benefit if this fight goes the distance.Kavanagh isn’t a bad grappler in his own right, though, and he does defend takedowns at an 88 percent clip.I also think Kavanagh has the finishing upside in this main-event spot.The odds of +190 at Circa in Las Vegas are the best out there at the time of writing, though you can also grab +185 at theScore Bet.I like Kavanagh down to +175 odds.PREDICTION: Lone’er Kavanagh ML (+185, theScore Bet)Quite the step up in competition for David Martinez on Saturday as he faces former title challenger Marlon “Chito” Vera.Vera is a notorious slow starter, so that’s really the only reason that he’s a massive +260 underdog in this fight.But Martinez isn’t a big-time, high-volume striker who will come in dominating Vera and put pressure on him.In fact, I think Vera is too big o fan underdog Saturday.Vera had a split-decision loss last time against Aiemann Zahabi, whom I think very highly of.Martinez is getting a step up in competition, while Vera takes a step down.Vera is not washed, and I expect him to be...