Inflation held steady in February though Iran war could reheat prices

Inflation held steady in February ahead of the war in Iran, though economists are concerned that energy shocks from the conflict could ripple across the economy – complicating the Fed’s path to interest-rate cuts.The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in February over the past 12 months as expected, the same yearly increase as January, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday.The core figure – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose 2.5% on a yearly basis, also matching January’s rate.“Until the Strait of Hormuz is opened and the turmoil in the Middle East simmers down, the Federal Reserve may step away from any action on interest rates,” Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, said in a note Wednesday.“The Fed now has tariffs, potential tariff refunds, higher energy prices and weakening employment to sort through in order to get any kind of clarity on what to do next.”Though economic data is always backward-looking, February’s inflation report only covers the period of time ahead of the joint US-Israeli air strikes on Iran on Feb.28 – which have disrupted global oil supplies and whipsawed markets.After briefly nearing $120 a barrel earlier this week, US crude oil futures reached roughly $85 on Tuesday.

National average gasoline prices surged to $3.58 a gallon, according to AAA, and diesel costs are also way up – which could be catastrophic for truckers and farmers.Economists have warned that energy shocks tend to work their way into consumer prices and February’s jobs data painted a picture of a weakening labor market – potentially setting the country up for a toxic mix of high prices and flat growth known as stagflation.Food was one of the largest drivers in February’s overall inflation figure, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, rising 3.1% compared to the same period last year.Americans dining at restaurants or ordering takeout felt pain as prices skyrocketed more than 3.9% on a yearly ...