Commentary: Is California really going to elect a Republican governor? Is there a Democratic Plan B?

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Today we discuss probability, self-destruction and political bossism.Wow.California, which is as blue as Lake Tahoe, is about to elect a Republican governor! How crazy is that?Whoa.

Hold up, pony.Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.

Well, there’s certainly a lot of Democratic angst out there.That’s for sure.It’s reminiscent of the panic that followed Joe Biden’s wretched debate performance in Atlanta, the biggest disaster to hit the city since a 2009 flood caused more than half a billion dollars in damage.

In California, the high anxiety is a result of the state’s “jungle” primary, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, with the top two finishers advancing to a November runoff.With so many Democrats running, there’s the genuine prospect of them splintering partisan support, resulting in the leading GOP candidates — Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton — grabbing both slots and moving past June 2.How likely is that to happen?I can’t say.

And Nostradamus is away on spring break.But one of California’s leading political savants, Paul Mitchell, has developed a helpful online tool to suss out the possibilities.Visitors to his site have run tens of thousands of simulations, which right now put the odds of a Democratic freeze-out at about 17% to 20%.Which suggests it’s unlikely.

But it’s also not impossible.A nod for Chad Bianco or Steve Hilton would almost certainly usher them into November’s runoff.It could also solve a Democratic dilemma, which is why Trump may prefer a dual endorsement or none at all.Why don’t some Democrats step aside, for the good of the party?That’s easy for you to say.Anyone putting themselves out there by seeking public office has to have a certain amount of faith, in both their capabilities and the prospect of good fortune smiling upon them.

(Luck being a greatly undervalued factor in polit...