CFTC chair Michael Selig is all-in on prediction markets but warns there has to be aggressive protection againstinsider trading
Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig wants America to be the hub for prediction markets.He also wants the industry to know he is watching every trade.In a sit-down interview with NYNext at CFTC headquarters in Washington this week, Selig, 36, laid out his vision.
The regulator is intent on keeping prediction markets — which allow users to bet on everything from election outcomes to Oscar winners to oil prices — safe for traders.He wants to balance innovation and enforcement in the new regulatory framework he is trying to codify”I want the United States to be the markets capital of the world,” Selig said.
“Whether it’s prediction markets, crypto, traditional markets — if we don’t take leadership there, we’re going to see these markets flourish offshore.”Ironically, Selig, who was sworn in on Dec.22, 2025, expected to spend his tenure wrestling with digital assets — e to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum spot markets or overseeing DeFi developers.
Instead he has been inundated with something nobody saw coming at scale: prediction markets, and what Washington’s role in regulating them should be.Prediction markets drew widespread attention during the 2024 election cycle, when platforms such as Kalshi and offshore rival Polymarket forecasted a Trump landslide at a time when major polls said the race was a toss-up.Now, Washington is racing to figure out how to regulate an industry that didn’t exist at scale just a few years ago — and whether the rules are adequate to stop those with inside knowledge from cashing in.“We’re investigating various participants in the markets on a daily basis, we’re working with the exchanges … and the exchanges have brought several actions now against persons for insider trading and manipulation in their markets,” Selig told NYNext.
“When we see unusual trading activity ahead of a big event … the Oscars … we take action.”Last month, following the Academy Awards, The Post rep...