New York may be facing a crime trend even worse than deadly gang violence

While New York’s leaders have been cheering the city’s steady decline in murder, another indicator has been giving public-safety advocates pause.Homicides and shootings have been on a downward trajectory, but felony assaults exploded in early 2021 — and remain far above their pre-pandemic lows.The city has seen just over 11,000 such crimes year-to-date, NYPD data show, essentially unchanged from the same period last year and up 3% versus 2024.At the end of last year, the total figure was up 44% versus 2019.The trend is alarming in itself.But combined with the decline in murders and shootings, there’s reason to believe it indicates a rise in acts of casual violence — a sign of more systemic problems to come.What’s driving the increase? Gov.

Kathy Hochul cited “assaults on public-sector employees” — including bus drivers and police officers — and domestic violence.These account for about 10% and 40% of incidents, respectively.Such incidents have occasionally captured the spotlight, as with the four MTA employees assaulted “with wrenches, fists and feet,” The Post reported last year.In February, assaults against cops were up 3% over the prior year, per The Post.What’s significant is that this increase in violence has come as other, deadlier violence has fallen.The decline in homicides is the result of NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch doing what works: focusing on the handful of people and places that disproportionately drive violent offenses.Rolling up gang members and surging NYPD to hot spots is almost certainly to thank for the city’s record low rates of shootings, too.But how do we square the circle of this decline against the increase in aggravated assaults?One possible answer: Others, besides the few serial offenders, are now getting in on the action.Some evidence suggests that’s true.I looked at court data on arrests for felony violations of the state’s assault law.In 2025, 62% of those arraigned on a felony assault charge had no...