They made six figures on prediction markets with these really random bets

The bets just keep on coming. Prediction markets continue to surge in popularity.On Kalshi and Polymarket, the two most popular prediction markets in America (and America’s news-cycle), total trading volume surpassed $24 billion in April 2026, up from about $1.8 billion a year prior, according to analysis from The Block. The most successful predictors, so-called sharps, are finding edges in unexpected markets, from music charts to Super Bowl broadcasts to Great Plain tornadoes. Meet three of them.

‘It’s a mix of data and vibes’Joel Holsinger, a 26-year-old Brooklynite, began trading on prediction markets and creating content around them in July 2024.As of September 2026, he decided he was doing well enough to quit his day job in accounting; since then, he’s made around $250,000.His specialty is mention markets, which take predictions on specific words or phrases that might be used during live events.During this year’s Super Bowl, for example, while the rest of the world was wagering on the outcome of the Seattle Seahawks-New England Patriots bout, Holsinger had the volume dialed up on commentators Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth.

He’d studied up on the duo’s previous broadcasts, and, all evening long, was stalking social media and the game script to see which players, celebrities and football lore the talking heads were likely to bring up.His largest position on the evening, that the announcers would not say “What a catch,” hit.By night’s end, he’d profited about $8,800 on his predictions.Holsinger is using his winnings to fund his wedding in August and a honeymoon to Europe.“It’s been pretty life changing,” he said.

“I made last year’s salary in my last few months trading.”“It doesn’t seem real to me” Brandon, 26 and a sixth-grade teacher from Pennsylvania, has made over $175,000 dollars on Kalshi by betting on how high songs by pop stars like Ariana Grande will climb on the charts.“[This] is what I’ve been doin...