The U.S.-Qatar Domination of Gas Left the World Dangerously Exposed

Years before the war in the Persian Gulf, executives in boardrooms across Japan were discussing a development they feared posed a growing risk to Asia’s energy supplies.The global trade in liquefied natural gas, the supercooled fuel that underpins power generation across Asia, was hardening into a duopoly.Just two nations — the United States and Qatar — were poised to account for the vast majority of supply growth by 2030.Anxiety was high in Japan because it’s the largest L.N.G.

importer behind China.The concern was that a market dominated by two powerful suppliers could disadvantage buyers and leave Japan vulnerable should either pillar falter.

The United States was viewed as politically unpredictable, especially after the Biden administration paused permits for new export facilities in 2024.And Qatar sat in one of the world’s most volatile regions.In February, those fears were realized.That month, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which Qatar ships virtually all of its L.N.G.

to the rest of the world.Two weeks later, Iranian strikes hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan L.N.G.

hub, inflicting damage that could take years to repair.The disruption immediately knocked about a fifth of global L.N.G.supply off the market.

In Asia, the destination for most of Qatar’s exports, gas prices skyrocketed.Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Singapore and Taiwan were among those in Asia getting anywhere from a third to nearly all of their L.N.G.

from Qatar.The rug had been pulled out from under them.It is easy, in hindsight, to say countries should have been better prepared, said Henning Gloystein, a managing director for energy at Eurasia Group, a political risk research firm.

Yet significant energy supply disruptions occur virtually every decade, he said, and the industry’s growing reliance on just two suppliers had created a structural vulnerability.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.T...