The jobs report for May, set to be released Friday morning, is expected to show that hiring has remained steady despite growing inflation and energy prices triggered by the ongoing war in Iran.Subscribe to read this story ad-free Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.Economists polled by Dow Jones believe that the U.S.
economy will have added 80,000 positions in May and that the unemployment rate will be unchanged, at a low 4.3%.Average hourly earnings, which fell below the rate of inflation in April, are expected to rise 0.3%.
Wages are expected to rise 3.4% from a year ago.In April, inflation sharply accelerated for a second month to 3.8%, its highest level in three years, because of the surging prices of oil and gas and their wider economic ripples.(The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release May’s inflation numbers Wednesday.)“We expect a third consecutive month of job growth in May,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark said Monday, while cautioning that monthly jobs data has become more volatile this year.“Recent large and rapid changes in the size and composition of the labor force due to slowing immigration could mean employment patterns shift throughout the year in unpredictable ways, increasing the monthly volatility of data,” she wrote.
Bank of America U.S.economist Shruti Mishra said Tuesday, “Education and health, where AI adoption has been slower and demographics remain a tailwind, should continue to lead job gains.” Those sectors have largely driven labor market gains over the last year.“That said, we are likely to see some job growth broadening,” she said.
Pointing to recent manufacturing data showing activity at a four-year high, Mishra said the trade and transportation category of the jobs report could be “relatively strong.” Warm weather could boost the leisure and hospitality industry, and construction could benefit from demand for AI data centers, she added.However, economists with...