Inflation is likely to have increased for a third straight month in May as the war with Iran sent energy prices higher and ratcheted up pressure on U.S.consumers.Subscribe to read this story ad-free Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for last month will be released at 8:30 a.m.
ET Wednesday.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it will show the annual rate of inflation hit 4.2%, well above the 2.4% level it hit before the war and its highest point since early 2023.
“High energy prices will again provide upward pressure, although potentially less than in the previous two months,” analysts at Lloyd’s Bank said.Since the war with Iran started, oil prices have risen nearly 40%, although they are well off their highs for the year.
U.S.crude oil briefly rose to more than $115 per barrel in early April.
Retail gasoline prices have fallen in turn by 40 cents from their high this year.But consumers filling up at the pump are still paying around 40% more on average than they did before the war began.
There could be more pain to come.Executives and analysts warn that the moderating prices don’t account for a growing problem.
Energy stockpiles are being drained rapidly to make up for oil that can’t make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, and they could reach critical low levels by the end of June, according to some observers.Once that happens, prices will “shoot up,” Exxon Mobil executive Neil Chapman said at a Bernstein investment conference last month.
It isn’t clear yet how much of an impact higher oil and fuel prices are having on the retail costs of other consumer products.Core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, will be of particular focus in Wednesday’s report.
It’s expected to return to near 3%.“Beyond airfares, there is little evidence” that overall inflation is spilling over to core inflation yet, Bank of America analysts wrote last week.�...