Xavier Becerra leads in new poll but hes no powerhouse

The general election is set.Xavier Becerra against Steve Hilton.Becerra — former attorney general of California and Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary — is the Democrat.

Hilton — British-born commentator, entrepreneur, former Fox News host and Trump-backed — is the Republican.The first Berkeley IGS poll of the matchup puts Becerra up 52% to 31%, with 17% undecided.It was conducted online May 19-24 among more than 8,500 registered voters, run by veteran pollster Mark DiCamillo and funded in part by the Los Angeles Times.

In California polling, it doesn’t get much more credible.Twenty-one points.It looks like a rout.Read the crosstabs and it stops looking like one.

This poll doesn’t just show Becerra ahead.It shows why Democrats stay dominant in California — and why Becerra himself is no powerhouse.Start with the math.

A generic Democrat in a two-way California race begins with an enormous structural head start.Democrats outregister Republicans by 20 points.

DiCamillo calls it “a huge advantage in general elections.” California's top news, sports and entertainment delivered to your inbox every day.Please provide a valid email.

By clicking above you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.Never miss a story So here is the question Democrats won’t ask out loud.

With an advantage that large, why is Becerra stuck at 52%, with 17% still uncommitted?Because the lead is the party registration, not the man. Becerra isn’t running ahead of his party.He’s running level with it.

That isn’t strength.That’s gravity.Hilton has his own anchor, and it’s a heavy one.

Trump’s approval among California voters sits at 29%.Sixty-nine percent disapprove.

Sixty-two percent disapprove strongly.This isn’t a bad week for Trump.The Berkeley survey finds these numbers essentially unchanged across years of measurement.

The anchor is permanent.The endorsement that powered Hilton thr...