Mines, Logistics and Deep Uncertainty Threaten a Middle East Oil Rebound

Oil is trickling out of the Persian Gulf as stranded tankers take advantage of the fragile détente between the United States and Iran to cross the Strait of Hormuz.The preliminary deal signed this week by the two countries to try to end the war promised a formal reopening of the strait, a narrow waterway on Iran’s southern coast.But the agreement has brought no great flood of oil-laden ships — at least not initially.Shipowners are eager to get out but generally remain wary of risking a journey through the strait until it is clearer that their crews will be safe.

Oil producers in the area confront a similar calculus: They are ready to ramp up production but want to see evidence that a critical mass of vessels are returning to the Persian Gulf to pick up their oil.And any escalation of the regional conflict, like the violence involving Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants on Friday, could deliver a blow to efforts to kick-start the flow of energy.Still, the companies in the region that pump and distribute oil are pressing ahead with plans to expand pipelines and fuel storage.

The last 16 weeks have left them keen to become less dependent on the strait.“We are thinking seriously of ⁠having larger storage facilities all over the world,” Yasir O.Al-Rumayyan, the chairman of Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant, Saudi Aramco, said on Thursday at a conference in Rome....