MLB picks: Why were expecting a dud from Gerrit Cole in Yankees vs. Tigers

Gerrit Cole’s return from Tommy John surgery has gone about as well as the Yankees could have hoped for. After 28 innings over five starts, the 35-year-old former Cy Young winner is 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. The Yankees, who are +500 to win the World Series at DraftKings, have their sights set on the postseason as they carry a three-game lead in the AL East as of this writing.Their ace’s health is critical to that venture and workload management has become a priority.Cole was slated to start in Sunday’s series finale against the Reds, but was moved to Monday in Detroit, with rookie Elmer Rodriguez taking his place to give him an extra day’s rest. In his last outing against the White Sox, Cole worked up to a season high of 90 pitches in a 12-2 shellacking.

The Bombers’ early scoring surge put Cole in a comfortable spot as he settled in to retire 13 straight batters and struck out six.That was only the second start he reached that number. Even though his fastball velocity is up at 96.6 mph, Cole’s command isn’t just there yet.

We’re seeing an increased sinker usage to induce more ground balls to preserve arm strength rather than chasing high strikeout numbers. That said, Cole’s results may be positive, but both he and Aaron Boone have made it clear that he is still working his way back toward his peak. His 7.71 K/9 rate is the lowest it’s been in his Yankees career beginning in 2020.In fact, Cole is hardly fooling batters at all with a whiff rate that is in the bottom three percentiles of MLB pitchers. According to Statcast, the Tigers swing and miss at the eighth-fewest clip and have struck out the 11th fewest times overall. Even with the extra day of rest, Cole’s plight is a marathon, not a sprint, so it’s safer to wager on the Yankees’ caution.THE PLAY: Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105, BetMGM)Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post.

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