This iconic Pete Dye design stretches just over 6,850 yards, heavily favoring precise driving accuracy over raw power.With its famously small greens and a dramatic, fan-favorite closing stretch, the event historically delivers low scores and chaotic Sunday finishes.'PAR TALK': NEW YORK GOLF FANS DESERVE TO BE CALLED OUT, SAM BURNS HAS A GOOD CRY, WYNDHAM CLARK'S BEST SHOT AT SHINNECOCKNavigating these complexes requires dialed-in wedge play and strong course familiarity, making past success a massive indicator this week.
The current betting board features glaring mispricings on several proven winners, leaving value.Full disclosure: I'm getting waxed in golf betting this season, and my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is an embarrassing -41.47 units (u).For the Travelers, I'm allocating 2.3u on outright bets and 2.75u on top-10s/20s.
Here's who I'm losing money on this week at TPC River Highlands.The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below.Subject to change.
Collin Morikawa +3125 (0.64u) and Top-10 with ties +239 (0.5u), both at Kalshi Justin Thomas +3233 (0.62u) and Top-10 with ties +252 (0.5u), both at Kalshi Aaron Rai +5500 at DraftKings (0.36u) Brian Harman +6800 (0.29u) and Top-20 with ties +162 (0.75u), both at DraftKings Hideki Matsuyama +8991 at Polymarket (0.22u) and Top-20 with ties +239 at Kalshi (0.5u) Alex Smalley +11527 (0.17u) and Top-20 with ties +265 (0.5u), both at KalshiThese odds legitimately don’t make sense to me.He ranks in the top five of all the stat-based models I’ve run for this event.
Granted, Morikawa has dealt with injuries and even withdrew from THE PLAYERS Championship as the second-betting favorite.Nevertheless, he looked good at last week’s U.S.Open.
Collin tied for 17th while gaining strokes with his driver, irons and putter.Morikawa tied for 29th at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open in his first tournament back after taking a month off following the PGA Championship.Which isn’t anything for him to...