Portugal vs. Colombia World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bets for Group K finale

Maybe Portugal wasn’t the juggernaut we all thought before drawing Congo DR 1-1. Maybe we didn’t credit Colombia enough before tearing through their first two games to lead Group K.Maybe neither of those notions are true. Either way, we’re gonna find out when the two play each other for the division Saturday. Bookmakers are giving the edge to Seleção das Quinas, who are juiced to -115 on the three-way moneyline, while La Tricolor can be grabbed for a price as long as +320 odds at bet365. Transitive property doesn’t always hold true, but for context, let’s talk about both team’s respective matches against the DR Congo. Portugal, which plays a possession-based game, had the ball at their feet for 75 percent of the match despite registering one measly shot on target.DR Congo defended them compactly and stunted their creativity through closing passing lanes and denying Portugal space between the lines.And aside from the possession advantage, nothing else about the box score was pretty; the Portuguese fell in expected goals 0.87 to 0.67. This result was one of the biggest surprises of the group stage before Portugal exploded for a 5-0 pounding of Uzbekistan.  On the other hand, we saw Colombia, a counterattacking side, outshoot DR Congo 9-1 in a 1-0 victory.

They by no means dominated the match, however, as the Léopards applied the same compact mid-block that disrupted Portugal.  This was a wasteful display, and the Colombians won’t be given the same luxuries against Portugal.Seleção das Quinas heads into this critical match tied with Spain for the highest possession average in the World Cup, completing the second-most passes per match. This technical security is manned by Rúben Dias anchoring the defense, João Neves and Vitinha controlling midfield tempo and Bernardo Silva operating between the lines.

Neither DR Congo nor Uzbekistan tested Columbia’s block the way this group is capable of doing.  Built for match days and everyda...