The race to succeed Iowa’s retiring Republican Sen.Joni Ernst is on track to be one of the closest Senate contests in 2026. Ernst, the first woman senator to represent the Hawkeye State, won by 6.5 points in 2020, and President Donald Trump carried it by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024.A new statewide Fox News survey finds Iowans now view Trump negatively by 13 points (42% favorable vs.
55% unfavorable).That’s a 19-point swing compared to his +6 rating (52-46%) in the November 2024 Iowa Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. The last time Iowa elected a Democratic senator was Tom Harkin nearly 20 years ago (2008). As it stands, Democrat Josh Turek has an early 4-point advantage over Republican Ashley Hinson: 50% vs.
46%. It’s an edge that’s within the poll’s margin of error.Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to vote, Turek holds a 15-point lead, coming largely from greater enthusiasm among Democrats (67% extremely motivated) than Republicans (53%). FOX NEWS POLL: MAINE SENATE RACE IS TIGHT, WITH CONCERNS ABOUT BOTH CANDIDATESHinson’s net favorability is more positive than Trump’s, yet still negative by 7 points (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable) while Turek is much more popular with a net positive rating of 18 points (51%-33%). Sixteen percent have no opinion of Turek while 9% say the same of Hinson.In the head-to-head, Turek benefits from the support of women with a college degree (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under age 30 (55%).Hinson’s backing comes from White evangelical Christians (67%), men ages 45 and over (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). Her support is strongest among MAGA Republicans, who are 23 points more likely to back her than non-MAGA GOPers (95% vs.72%).Overall, by 8 points, more Democrats support Turek (96%) than Republicans back Hinson (88%). FOX NEWS POLL: LOOKING AHEAD TO AMERICA'S 250TH ANNIVERSARYBy a 10-point margin, more of Turek...