France vs. Paraguay World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bets for Round of 16

Leave fireworks off the shopping list — the French are providing them for this year’s Fourth of July party. Les Bleus, who enter the Round of 16 as +184 favorites to win the tournament, cruise into Philadelphia on the heels of a 3-0 thrashing of Sweden.The French fashioned a host of chances, generating 12 shots on goal and 3.24 xG. Much thanks, of course, to Golden Boot favorite Kylian Mbappé, whose brace tied Lionel Messi with the tournament lead of six and moved within one of Messi’s all-time record.

It was Mbappé’s fourth multi-goal game in a World Cup knockout match — good for twice as many as any other player in tournament history. And while we’re on the subject of records, France have now scored at least three goals in each of their last five World Cup matches, the tournament’s all-time longest streak.Against Paraguay, they’re favored at a -550 price tag on the three-way moneyline at FanDuel.Paraguay is the Round of 16’s biggest longshot at 18/1. Paraguay gets to play the role of David again after stunning Germany in the World Cup’s most shocking upset so far. La Albirroja’s resilience against a German team that hounded the ball to a 75 percent possession share and led 1.57 to 0.35 in expected goals (xG) certainly counts for something.

Winning 4-3 on penalties following a 1-1 draw might just have been the only path where Paraguay came away on top. Slaying France will be a much greater Goliath, however. Between Mbappé, Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola, Les Bleus’ offensive creativity is boundless.This quartet can blitz opponents at will with rapid transitions, acute passing and clinical finishing.

With that luxury on hand, Didier Deschamps’ philosophy of defensive pragmatism keeps the game at low risk while allowing big moments to surface through counterattacking. With a measly eight shots on target through their first four World Cup matches, Paraguay is simply not equipped to disrupt this scheme.Thei...