Traders on prediction market Kalshi are piling into wagers that Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner will drop out of the race by next week.The contract on whether Platner will drop out before July 14 soared to 94 cents Tuesday morning from the previous single digits, implying traders now assign a roughly 94% probability to his impending exit.The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $4.4 million. While prediction markets don't determine political outcomes, the surge in betting reflects a growing belief among traders that Platner's campaign is in serious jeopardy following the latest allegations.
Platner is seeking to unseat five-term Republican Sen.Susan Collins, R-Maine, in one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races.THE GROWING LIST OF CONTROVERSIES THREATENING DEMOCRAT GRAHAM PLATNER'S MAINE SENATE BIDOn Tuesday morning, Kalshi traders pushed the odds of Platner dropping out of the Senate race to 94%, up from roughly 6% the day before.
(Kalshi)The market's abrupt swing follows Democrats' rapid break with Platner after a rape allegation was leveled against him on Monday, which immediately triggered calls from across the party for him to suspend his campaign.Sen.Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., one of Platner's highest-profile backers, rescinded her endorsement after previously saying that he is "my kind of man.""With so much at stake, the best path forward is for Graham Platner to step aside as the Democratic nominee and address these serious allegations outside this Senate race," the progressive senator wrote in a statement.Rep.
Ro Khanna, D-Calif., also withdrew his backing and called on Platner to exit the race.Sens.Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., and Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., likewise pulled their support Monday, though Gallego stopped short of urging Platner to suspend his campaign.PLATNER CONTROVERSIES FUEL SPECULATION ABOUT LITTLE-KNOWN MAINE BALLOT REPLACEMENT PROVISIONProgressive Democrat Graham...