Strong El Nio now a virtual certainty, forecasters say. What it means for California

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Set us as preferred A strong El Niño is virtually certain to develop this year, federal scientists say, and may end up being one of the strongest such events on record.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that there’s a 97% chance El Niño will be either “strong” or “very strong” over a three-month period ending this December.

There’s an 81% chance it’ll be “very strong.”That could have a major impact in California, as strong El Niños significantly tilt the odds of expected weather outcomes during the winter.For the southern part of the state, that means a higher chance of above-average rainfall, risking a winter of flash floods and landslides.Officials warn that the climate pattern — characterized by warmer water in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean — will also increase the risk of heat waves on land and at sea, which are already being exacerbated by human-caused global warming.

California Scientists are raising alarms over the planet’s warming oceans, which — coupled with a strong El Niño — could increase temperatures for land dwellers.Temperatures are already increasing in those parts of the Pacific.A section of those ocean waters in June was the fourth-warmest recorded for the month dating back to 1950, according to Michelle L’Heureux, physical scientist at the Climate Prediction Center and lead forecaster for governmental updates on El Niño.

“The warm pool of water in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean is expanding farther to the east,” L’Heureux said.Already, precipitation has been enhanced over the central and east-central tropical Pacific.During three of the four “very strong” El Niños in the global record, downtown Los Angeles got significantly more rain than average.

In two — 1982-83 and 1997-9...