England vs. Argentina prediction: 2026 World Cup picks, best bets
The scenes on the pitch on Wednesday will be magnificent.Argentina comes in as a slight underdog to advance to the English, with La Albiceleste at +105 to advance according to the oddsmakers at BetMGM, while the Brits sit at -135.Some would argue that Lionel Messi’s group is lucky to be here, and that’s what the odds suggest.Down 2-0 to Egypt, a disallowed goal kept Argentina alive before a wild comeback pushed Argentina to 2-2 and eventually a 3-2 win in full-time.It’s one of the crazier wins we’ve ever seen at the World Cup, but the English aren’t without their problems either.England got a bit lucky with a goal against Norway, as VAR did not disallow it after a ball appeared to hit a camera line, changing the direction of the shot.Everyone needs some luck and breaks to get this far in the World Cup, but these two cases feel particularly fortuitous.Still, it’s at least a little surprising to see Argentina as an underdog heading into the semifinals, given that they have the best xG differential of any team in the World Cup.
Argentina has generated 13.17 expected goals (xG) with just 3.57 xG allowed, by far the best differential of any team this tournament.Their path has been favorable compared to an English side that had to face Mexico in Mexico City and a strong Norwegian team.It’s hard to forget that Argentina was down big to Egypt and probably shouldn’t be here, but I do think that they give England all they can handle and then some.I’m expecting this one to go to extra time, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it get to penalty kicks either.Target the first 90 minutes to end in a draw, with odds as high as +200.PREDICTION: Three-way moneyline: Draw (+200, DraftKings)Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.
While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 ...