Savvy ice cream shop owner makes 43% of monthly rent betting on weather on Kalshi: If it rains, we still win
A California ice cream shop is freezing some assets — by placing bets on freezing weather.28wishes, a bougie independent ice cream parlor in downtown Los Angeles, has been gaining cash on Kalshi, the online “prediction market” app that lets users gamble on everything from political races to Met Gala looks.According to the shop’s owner, 37-year-old Jason Jiang, he’s been clearing up to $1,500 per month on the app by being bullish on cold snaps in Southern California.“Ice cream is one of the most weather-dependent products in the world,” explained Jiang, who worked in corporate banking before swirling soft serve.
“We lose about 20 percent of business when the weather goes below 70 degrees… So we’re essentially hedging that profit loss on the app.”Jiang and his younger brother, James, who co-owns the bougie shop — which has hundreds of five star reviews online for its homemade ice cream — often bet on sports games for fun.In April, they decided to put $20 a day on Kalshi’s climate prediction market.“People don’t come into the shop when it’s cold, and they don’t come in when it’s raining,” said Jiang.
“So we wanted a way to make money on those days” by predicting cold fronts before they hit the Golden State.The Jiang brothers use meteorology forecasts, climate news sites and scientists on social media to make their calls.Jason insists their prophesies are “scarily accurate” but also say $20 a day — or $600 a month — “is a risk we’re willing to take.” Jiang says his current rent is about $3,500 per month, which means he’s making about 43 percent of his monthly lease through his app winnings.
Kalshi was launched in 2021 by former MIT grads Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara.It currently has over 5 million monthly active users and a legal thumbs-up from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, though states like Arizona and Ohio have attempted to put the app on ice.So did Jiang’s own wife when she first le...