Two risky $30 million musicals are battling on Broadway Dolly and Paddington

The Broadway season doesn’t kick off for a few more weeks, when the horror play “Paranormal Activity” starts previews at the August Wilson Theatre.To call the state of new musicals these days alarming would be an understatement.But we already have a hot early race.

Or, well, hot-ish.Of the four new musicals that are currently on sale — “Galileo,” “Wanted,” “Paddington” and “Dolly: A True Original Musical” — there are two obvious pack leaders: The all-American Dolly Parton show and the polite British bear adventure from darkest England.What’s surprising about that top pair is who’s said to be ahead.That would be “Dolly,” which, sources said, has an advance of more than $3 million — some $400,000 more than the marmalade-loving scamp, “Paddington.” Others claim the gap is much wider.However, another source close to “Paddington” refuted that number and said it’s neck and neck with “Dolly” at $3 million worth of tickets sold.Who am I to pick a fight with a bear? Even one in a red hat.What’s so left-field about these figures is that “Paddington” is a giant hit in London — one of the hottest shows there in years — and is largely sold out through late September with just scattered seats available through the end of the year.No Broadway musical can say the same.

Most are too busy crying on Zoom calls.I saw “Paddington” last winter at the Savoy Theatre and adored it.The musical is a sweeter, poppier “Matilda” with impressive tech.Then there’s “Dolly.” The country-music show with tunes such as “I Will Always Love You” and “Jolene” was mocked to high heaven after its out-of-town Tennessee tryout last summer.

One spy told me it would be better off “in a drag bar in Vegas.” Viperous critics tellingly weren’t invited down south, and its Broadway bow was delayed.The situation would seem to be a clear-cut hit vs.bomb, right?Not necessarily. Cuddly “Paddington” is an enormous risk in NYC....