Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into the challenge facing Sen.Susan Collins now that her general election matchup is set.
Plus, we have the latest on the on-again, off-again Iran war.Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.— Adam WollnerCan Susan Collins defy political gravity again, or is she 2026’s Jon Tester?Analysis by Sahil KapurThe case for Republican Sen.Susan Collins in this year’s pivotal Maine Senate race goes like this: She’s a proven winner with an independent brand that will allow to her rise above her party’s unpopular image.If that sounds familiar, it’s because the same case was made for then-Sen.
Jon Tester, D-Mont., two years ago.Much like Collins in Maine, Tester repeatedly won in a state that his party consistently loses.But then his luck ran out: In 2024, amid a difficult political climate for his party, he once again overperformed national Democrats, but lost to Republican Tim Sheehy.A former Tester campaign operative predicted Collins will be the Tester of the 2026 cycle.
The operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to a new job that prohibits going on the record, said Sheehy won by tying Tester to the national party and narrowing his runway to win due to a shrinking share of ticket-splitters.“The lesson there is you can’t outrun the national environment, or you can only outrun it so much,” the operative said.“Susan Collins is the same story — how much can she outrun the ticket?”Much like Sheehy did to Tester in 2024, Democrats are promoting the message that Collins frequently votes with her party’s unpopular president.The ads tying Tester to then-President Joe Biden were “incredibly potent” in 2024, the former Tester operative said.
“Biden was about as popular as Jeffrey Epstein...