NY Rep. Mike Lawlers race now a toss-up as Dems target battleground district that could flip Congress
US Rep.Mike Lawler’s re-election race vs.
Democrat Cait Conley is now a “toss-up,” according to an independent analyst’s assessment released Thursday.The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia initially rated the race for New York’s battleground 17th Congressional District as “lean Republican” based on Lawler’s “impressive victories” in 2022 and 2024 despite the district voting Democratic for president.But the race for the Hudson Valley seat in one of the few Empire State swing districts has turned the race into the most closely watched in the state as it’s considered key to which party ends up controlling Congress in 2027.“Lawler, who holds a district based in Westchester and Rockland counties, drew what appeared to be his strongest potential challenger, [Army] veteran Cait Conley (D), in last month’s primary, and Conley also got the ballot line for the Working Families Party,” the analysis by the center’s “Sabato’s Crystal Ball” said.“The lack of a divided field may aid Conley in NY-17,” Sabato Crystal Ball’s managing editor Kyle Kondik said.Overall, the analysis released Thursday moved five House races from lean Republican to toss-up, including Lawler’s seat.
The other races are in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.Partisans on both sides have conducted surveys showing their candidate ahead, but only narrowly.A poll conducted by GOP-leaning co/efficient showed Lawler with 50% of the vote to Cait Conley’s 45%, just a five-point spread.A survey conducted by the political action committee for House Democrats had Conley leading Lawler 51% to 45%.The Cook Political Report also recently rated the swing district contest a toss-up, while the Fox News Power Rankings moved the race from even to “Lean D.”Lawler first took the seat in 2022 when he defeated former Rep.Sean Patrick Maloney, then the chairman of the House Democratic Campaign Committee.He handily won re-election in 2024, beating former lefty ...