Yankees vs. Braves prediction: MLB Friday picks, odds

Max Fried will see plenty of familiar faces when he takes the mound Friday night in The Bronx.The Yankees left-hander will face the Braves for the first time since leaving Atlanta, where he spent the first eight seasons of his major league career and developed into one of baseball’s top starting pitchers.There will undoubtedly be some extra emotion attached to the reunion, but bettors should resist the temptation to assume Fried’s former teammates will spoil the occasion.Instead, back the southpaw to hold the Braves under control and stay below his earned runs prop.The Braves have one of baseball’s most productive lineups this season, but their overall numbers disguise a big weakness against left-handed pitching.Atlanta entered Thursday with a 93 wRC+ against southpaws, tied for 12th worst in the majors.The Braves were also batting just .239 against lefties.That makes the matchup less intimidating than it initially appears for Fried, who has looked sharp since returning from a left elbow bone bruise that sidelined him since May.Fried was activated from the injured list July 22 and immediately delivered five scoreless innings against the Pirates, allowing just one hit and one walk while striking out seven on 57 pitches.He stumbled in his second start, allowing three runs during a laborious first inning against the White Sox.Fried responded with 5 ¹/₃ innings of one-run ball against the Cubs last Saturday, surrendering only two hits.All told, Fried has allowed four earned runs across 13 ¹/₃ innings since returning, good for a 2.70 ERA.He has stayed below 2.5 earned runs in two of those three appearances.His still-developing workload also works in our favor, with little reason for the Yankees to push Fried deep into Friday’s game after his elbow injury.Fried has completed six innings just once in his three starts back, limiting the number of opportunities the Braves will have to do damage against him.

Most of the market has moved this line to 1.5, but Ha...