Tennis picks for ATP Montreal: Learner Tien vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar odds, predictions, best bets
It seems like every month a new Spaniard is rising the ranks on the ATP Tour.Martin Landaluce and Rafael Jodar have each had time in the spotlight this year, and now it’s Daniel Merida Aguilar’s turn.The 21-year-old has been on a roll for most of 2026, going from World No.
164 to No.63, but he’s on another level at the Canadian Masters.Merida has dropped just two sets in the tournament, and just steamrolled Tallon Griekspoor, 6-3, 6-1, to punch his ticket to the quarterfinals.He’s a +152 underdog against another rising star, World No.
19 Learner Tien, in the quarterfinals on Tuesday evening.It’s no shock that both of these players seem to be enjoying the conditions in Montreal.While Tien seems to do his best work on slow-paced hard courts, Merida has turned himself into a superb clay-courter, so it’s no shock that he is finding success in Montreal.Unlike other slick surfaces, the conditions in Quebec are slower, so it’s not uncommon to see dirtballers find their form here.It’s also not a shock that the Madrileño has left a number of big servers in his wake.
Griekspoor, Ugo Humbert, and Alex Michelsen all like to ramp it up with their serve, but a counter-puncher like Merida will pick you apart in slower conditions.Tien also wants to dictate the tempo with his serve, but he’s got much more in his toolkit than just a fastball.The 20-year-old Californian is happy to dig in and rally, just like his opponent on Tuesday.Tien’s the known commodity in this matchup, so it’s not a shock that he’s the favorite, but it’s unlikely that this is a straightforward encounter for either competitor.Merida and Tien aren’t exactly mirror images, but they’re not all that different, so I expect this to be a nail-biter and go the distance.The Play: Over 2.5 sets (+128, FanDuel)Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.
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