The rate of inflation likely outpaced growth in Americans’ wages last month, according to projections, even as energy prices moderated slightly.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the consumer price index for July at 8:30 a.m.ET.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect it will show 3.4% inflation on an annual basis.That would be down from the 3.5% rate in June.
Even that slight decline would keep inflation higher than wage gains.On Friday, the BLS reported that average hourly wages in July grew at a 3.2% clip from a year ago, conjuring fears of potential “stagflation” — when the job market and wage growth stagnate and inflation remains elevated.
Energy prices remain a primary reason for inflation worries.The CPI jumped to 4.2% in May, as the war with Iran pushed crude oil higher.
Those prices moderated after President Donald Trump and other officials said the U.S.was canceling strikes on Iran and was close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war.
That didn’t happen, and energy prices have crept up again.On Tuesday, U.S.
crude oil prices neared $85 per barrel, while international Brent crude oil rose as high as $90 per barrel, its first time reaching that level this month.That dynamic has kept gas prices above $4 a gallon.“Energy prices should again exert a modest disinflationary influence on July CPI, although likely not to the same extent as in June,” economists at PNC Financial wrote in a note on Monday.
Jet fuel prices also remain elevated.Economists at Goldman Sachs forecast that airfare prices rose 2% in July “reflecting passthrough of the rebound in jet fuel prices across July.” Wall Street and the Federal Reserve will pay close attention to what’s known as “core” CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is also expected to rise 0.2% from June.
But on a year-ago basis, because the figure is measured against last July’s reading, the rate of core inflation is set to fall sligh...