Mets vs. Braves prediction: MLB Wednesday picks, best bets
The Mets’ season has quickly turned around since the MLB Trade Deadline.Andy Green’s squad has looked competent on offense since Aug.1, leading all of baseball in home runs (15) and going 6-1 in their last seven games.Interestingly enough, they appear to have found their closer in Kodai Senga for the foreseeable future.The Mets have opened as slight +125 underdogs to the Braves and are sending out rookie Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA) to the mound against Atlanta’s trade deadline acquisition Tyler Mahle (3-9, 4.83 ERA).
Mahle just had his best start of the season in his Braves debut, hurling six shutout innings against the Yankees with nine strikeouts.Regression is coming for Thornton, according to the advanced analytics, though, as his xERA sits at 4.63 compared to his currently sparkling 2.52.
Asking him to continue these results is unrealistic thanks to a 39.8 percent hard-hit rate and an average exit velocity of 89.3 MPH.So the Mets are deserving underdogs in this game, and I will not be betting on them at the current moneyline price.Instead, I think the over is a fruitful wager considering the Mets are third in baseball in runs scored since Aug.
1.Fanatics currently has over 7.5 total runs coming in at -150, at open.
That might move to eight, but I’d even be willing to target that as well if the line moves.At least one run to be scored in the first inning is 51 percent on Kalshi, and while Thornton has been excellent, I expect him to regress and allow multiple runs to be scored on Wednesday, while Mahle really struggled for the Giants and I don’t suspect everything to completely change for him now that he’s in Atlanta.THE PLAY: Over 7.5 total runs (-150, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Yes runs first inning (51 percent, Kalshi)Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.While constantly bettin...