Tehran is losing its grip on Hormuz, and with it all its leverage

All the noise around Iran’s supposed stranglehold on oil supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz is missing the point.The reality is that the combination of Operations Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury upended the regime’s hopes of turning Hormuz into a permanent hostage.Its ruling clerics will now pay the price for activating a blockade without their most important insurance cards — perhaps sooner than they think.Had the regime in Tehran followed late Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s plan — weaponized its nuclear program, built an arsenal of thousands of ballistic missiles and drones and assembled its regional proxies into an even more formidable force — then its blockade of Hormuz would likely be permanent.That kind of potency would have deterred American and Israeli action and rebuilt Iran’s economy into a formidable global energy power.Instead, after several months of airstrikes by the US and Israel, Iran’s nuclear and missile programs are badly damaged, and its economy is collapsing from a blockade and sanctions.Its terrorist allies around the region, from the Houthis in Yemen to Hezbollah in Lebanon, are no longer the threat that they were on Oct.7, 2023 — the day of the deadly invasion of Israel by Iran-backed Hamas.Simply put, a weakened Iran played its Hormuz card too soon.

Each day that goes by leaves its regime more vulnerable to punishing military and economic pressure.The results are already becoming visible.According to US Energy Secretary Chris Wright, an average of 9 million barrels of oil are passing through Hormuz daily, while between 5 million to 7 million barrels are reaching consumers through “newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities.”Wright’s figures have been disputed by oil industry analysts and other commentators, who.Many of them insist that the true number of barrels is much lower, arguing as well that the febrile situation in Hormuz means that oil exports will continue at a trickle instead of a fl...