How pre-election surveys failed to predict David Crowley’s upset in Wisconsin’s Democratic governor primary.Karoline Leavitt is stepping down as White House press secretary.
And Paramount’s billionaire owner threatens to move the company out of California.Here’s what to know today.Why the Wisconsin primary results didn’t match the pollsAdd NBC News to GoogleCrowley thanks supporters after winning Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor01:11David Crowley’s win in Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary was one of the most unlikely resurrections in state history.The Milwaukee County executive dropped out of the race on July 8.
Five weeks later — after a moment of panic set off an unlikely series of events — he was his party’s nominee.This is Morning Rundown, a weekday newsletter to start your day.Sign up here to get it in your inbox.The moderate won against democratic socialist Francesca Hong by less than a percentage point.
Notably, Hong consistently led pre-election surveys by nearly 20 points.She may have ultimately exceeded expectations for a left-wing candidate in a purple swing state, but she dramatically underperformed those polls.
It might be tempting to look at the results and conclude that the polls are simply overestimating the strength of progressive and democratic socialist candidates.But what’s really going on is more complicated than that.
For one, primary elections often have many more undecided voters, and people pay much less attention to the races — meaning those who have not made up their minds headed into election day can be easily persuaded.It’s also difficult to predict who a person might vote for based on variables like race and education, as well as who will show up to vote on election day.Any of these factors in isolation can lead to error, but the 20+ point margin in Wisconsin means several of them combined to create a seismic miss.Read the full analysis here.More politics news:For subscribers: Longtime...