Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Irans grip on critical waterway weakens

Iran appears to be losing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz while traffic through the critical waterway has exploded by nearly 400% over the last two weeks — as ships increasingly use a US-backed corridor to cross.Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center.The surge brings total traffic along the passage route to about 20% of pre-war levels, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flowed in peacetime.Activity in Hormuz ground to a near halt after the Iran war began in late February, but vessels are now increasingly navigating through despite the ongoing standoff between Tehran and the US.More than 80% of liquid cargoes transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have either taken the Omani route — a US-backed, UN International Maritime Organization-authorized channel Iran rejects — or gone “dark,” likely slipping through the same corridor, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN this week.“The Oman route absolutely makes the most sense,” added Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noting it’s a way for vessels to avoid the possibility of paying a toll to Tehran.Over the past seven days, 103 ships entered the strait and 89 exited it — a 27% jump from a week ago, when 76 ships entered and 75 exited.The change is even more visible compared to two weeks ago — when just 18 ships entered and 21 ships exited the waterway at the center of the dispute between the warring countries.Most vessels that passed through were US-flagged allies from Panama and Liberia — though the flags merely indicate where the ships are registered, not where the companies that own them are based.About half of the ships were oil tankers and the othe...