Why NYC murders and shootings fell so sharply and how we can slash other crimes, too

The NYPD this month announced the fewest shootings and murders recorded through July in New York City’s history.This is a remarkable accomplishment for a city that seemed on the verge of a major backslide after shootings and murders spiked in 2020 and 2021.The striking thing, though, is that New York’s broader crime picture has not improved nearly as dramatically.The contrast becomes more pronounced when one compares today’s crime levels with the pre-pandemic era: Many offenses remain considerably more prevalent than in 2019, even as murders and shootings have fallen to historic lows.The most likely explanation: The NYPD has focused its limited resources on the worst and most prolific offenders, and gotten the biggest return on its investment.And boosting those resources — i.e., expanding the rank-and-file — could extend those gains to less serious crimes.To be sure, many other “major crime” categories (robbery, burglary, grand larceny) have also seen year-to-date declines.But relative to what the city experienced through Aug.16, 2019, most major crime categories are still up.That’s not what one would expect to see over a period in which murders and shootings are declining sharply.In 2025, New York City experienced just 309 homicides — fewer than any other year since 2018.Meantime, the city reported more “major” felony crimes than it did in 15 of the preceding 18 years, and 30,000 more than in 2018.The above chart shows the percentage change in major crimes from 2019 (year-to-date through Aug.

16) to the same period this year.(Rapes are not included because its technical definition changed, resulting in data that can’t be compared fairly.)So how exactly has the department managed to drive down homicides and shootings to record lows without making nearly as much progress on other crimes?A recent paper by researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, Boston College and UCLA suggests an answer.Using data from Chicago, they found “mode...