2026 NFL predictions: Bet on regression for Patrick Mahomes in return from injury
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL on Dec.14 but pundits are expecting him to walk into Arrowhead Stadium 274 days later (exactly nine months) and still be Superman.Not exactly a fair assumption. The three time Super Bowl winner and two time NFL MVP is a massive favorite (+185) to be the Comeback Player of the Year following his torn ACL and LCL.And while narratives drive that award more so than performance, it’s hard to look at the Chiefs through rose colored glasses considering the division they play in is loaded and the talent around Mahomes is less than stellar.Kansas City has to play some of the hardest hitting teams in the league, with the usual divisional suspects of the Chargers and Broncos leading the charge, and the Bills, Rams, 49ers, and Seahawks also on the schedule. Those vaunted defensive fronts gives me serious pause about whether Mahomes can cover that hefty number as Comeback Player of the Year.Kansas City’s over/under is 10.5 and while they may go over that number, their division is brutal and I’m not as bullish on him to clear his season-long totals while passing.In 14 games played, Mahomes rushed for 422 yards and five touchdowns, both career highs despite playing less than a full season.No shocker that it also came at the expense of his health.I don’t think that he believes in his weapons with an aging Travis Kelce, ineffective Xavier Worthy, and average Rashee Rice.Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 seasonBet on Mahomes to go under his passing yards number, as they feed newly acquired running back Kenneth Walker in every way this year.PREDICTION: Mahomes under 25.5 total passing touchdowns (-115, DraftKings) | Under 3,649.5 passing yards (-110, DraftKings)Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting.
During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons.While constantly betting long shots, ...