2026 NFL predictions: Bo Nix and elite defense make Broncos Super Bowl value pick
What did we learn from the 2025 NFL season?Great defenses win championships. The Seahawks began the season with 60/1 odds to win the Super Bowl before a 14-3 record fueled by a No.1 overall defensive rank in scoring, DVOA, and EPA. I’m looking to the Broncos for the same reasons as a Super Bowl future to place ahead of Week 1. Denver’s defense set a franchise record for sacks for the second straight season, posting 68.Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph’s aggressive scheme relies heavily on simulated pressures to funnel quarterbacks into elite edge rushers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper while superstar cornerback Pat Surtain II anchors the secondary. A product of playing alongside Surtain II is getting the lion’s share of targets.
Riley Moss led the NFL in coverage targets last year while allowing the second-fewest yards amongst cornerbacks. For the first time since 2015, the Chiefs were dethroned by the Broncos as winners of the AFC West.A 14-3 record preceded a run to the AFC Championship, and if it weren’t for Bo Nix’s fractured ankle in overtime of the Divisional Round, perhaps even more was on tap.Now it’s Super Bo or bust for Nix and the Broncos, who open the year at a handsome price of 19/1. His 24 career wins are the most of any active quarterback’s first two seasons in the NFL.
Last year, Nix led the NFL in game-winning drives with seven — a stat that isn’t all that sustainable.He benefited from a defense that succeeded with little margin for error, but he also managed this with an offense that ranked 16th and 17th in rushing and passing yards, respectively.He gets a new toy to improve those numbers this year in Jaylen Waddle, who adds a legitimate deep-ball threat to the offense. Waddle posted 1,000-yard seasons in each of his first three years but dropped off the last two thanks to Miami’s quarterback instability and a drastic shift in the offensive scheme.
He won’t have to compete with Tyreek Hill for targets anymore wh...