How to turn a profit in the NFL this season and why prediction markets may be the key

Sports wagering is nothing like it used to be.For decades, we were betting our hard-earned money on spreads, moneylines, and totals one way or another, whether through casinos or other routes.Online sportsbooks changed the game, promising massive payouts through same-game parlays and long-shot player prop bets.Technology has barged into the sports betting world, and sharp investors are all over it.The game now includes prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, with more players muddying the waters that were already murky with dozens of sportsbooks to choose from.For savvy users, prediction markets might actually be the better bet.Let’s start with futures wagers: There’s really no reason in any way to be betting on futures through sportsbooks anymore.Prediction markets offer real-time market pricing and fair-value cash-outs that sportsbooks are unwilling to compete with.Let’s say you buy the Giants’ Super Bowl odds at their true value of 2 percent (roughly 50/1 odds).

Let’s say they start the season off white-hot, and they move to 20/1 (4.8 percent).If you bet $100 at 2 percent (roughly 50/1) and they skyrocket to 6 percent, your buyout offer should be about $300 ($200 profit).So this is to say, there’s no way you should be wagering on futures on traditional sportsbooks right now.Prediction markets, if they’re offering you a similar price, will also give you the advantage of fairer cash-out prices that greedy sportsbook operators refuse to match.Prediction markets do take a cut, but it’s a fraction of the 4.5 percent vigorish that sportsbooks charge on each wager.Instead of betting against the house, sports trading on prediction markets doesn’t limit how much you can get down on a given price.

And the best part is, prediction markets have highly liquid moneyline prices, giving users the chance to bet big money if they choose, without waiting for approval from a sportsbook manager.If you are the maker of a market on a prediction market, meanin...