Harvard scientists predicted 75% of suicide attempts a week before they occured

Suicide is notoriously difficult to predict.Warning signs may be subtle, fleeting or easy to mistake for ordinary changes in mood or behavior.For Americans aged 10 to 34, suicide is the second-leading cause of death, and it’s the fourth-leading cause among individuals between the ages of 35 and 44.To intervene early and save lives before a crisis escalates, health experts are on the lookout for warning signs or indications that someone could be suicidal.While typical suicide prediction models focus on the likelihood of a future event over the next several months, year or even decade, recent research from Harvard University suggests that a majority of attempts can be predicted within a much tighter timeframe.Previous studies have shown that around 50% of people who died by suicide saw a clinician in their final month.

However, much of this data came from self-reporting, with participants asked if they had a suicide attempt since their last survey.“We need to understand what puts people at risk, and the ebb and flow of suicidal thoughts — how to better measure them when they occur, and how to better predict increases in risk,” Matthew Nock, the study’s lead author and a Harvard psychology professor, told The FAS Current.Nock, who pioneered the technique of surveying people in real time, led a multiyear study of more than 600 high-risk adults and adolescents who presented to a hospital with either or both suicidal thoughts and behavior.The findings, set to be published in the October issue of the Journal of Psychopathology and Clinical Science, predicted 75% of suicide attempts and 87% of suicide-related events — attempts as well as hospitalizations to prevent attempts — in the week before they occurred.Participants included adults who received emergency room-based psychiatric treatment and teens ages 12 to 19 who had been treated at an inpatient clinic for suicidal thoughts or behavior.After being released from treatment, participants received 20-item...