GOP control of House, Senate odds fade as Trump backlash builds from high gas prices, lingering Iran war

High gas prices, the lingering Iran war and growing voter discontent with President Trump are dragging House control away from Republicans — with the Senate now in jeopardy, too.In the House, prognosticator Larry Sabato’s “crystal ball” has Democrats leading in 208 seats, Republicans up in 203, and 22 tossups — after moving eight House races in the Dems’ direction.The magic number of seats Democrats need to seize control of and make House Minority Leader Rep.Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) the House speaker is 218.Experts for months have considered flipping the Senate to be the heavier lift, but Republicans are now playing defense in some unexpected states.Republicans have a narrow lead — 48-47 — in the University of Virginia political scientist’s Senate ranking.

But Kalshi prediction markets have moved in the Democrats’ direction, now giving them a 58% chance of getting the four seats needed to take over.Republicans currently control the chamber 53-47.The Kalshi odds for Democratic control of the House have hit 90%.Elections expert Charlie Cook wrote that the GOP’s most likely scenarios have shifted to “bad, really bad, or truly horrible.” Republicans are taking notice — one reason Vice President JD Vance jetted to Iowa Friday, where he gave a shout-out to Republican Senate candidate Rep.

Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who tellingly did not attend his event in Council Bluffs.She leads Democrat Josh Turek by just 1 percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average.That followed a Vance trip last week to Kansas, where Sen.

Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) trails megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton 45-43 in a new Emerson College poll of likely voters.That is within the poll’s 3.6% margin of error.“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters,” said Spencer Kimball, who directed the poll.In one move in the GOP’s direction, the Cook re...