Cam Schlittlers MVP case, odds: What do the sportsbooks say?
Cam Schlittler has all but wrapped up the American League Cy Young Award.The Pinstriped phenom is a -25000 favorite to become the seventh Yankee to win the honor at bet365 Sportsbook, and the biggest prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, have him priced at 96 percent.There are no sure things in baseball nor in betting, but this one is pretty darn close.While Schlittler will be making room for at least one award this winter, a debate has begun to spark up about whether the 25-year-old should also garner heavy consideration for another: AL MVP.No pitcher has won the award in either league since Clayton Kershaw did so for the Dodgers in 2014.
Kershaw’s stat line that season was impeccable.He went 21-3, pitched to a 1.77 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, and racked up 239 strikeouts against just 31 walks in 198 1/3 innings.
By season’s end, the future Hall-of-Famer had a WAR of 8.2.Plenty has changed in baseball in the 12 years since Kershaw dominated the league, but Schlittler’s resume pops just as much.He leads the league in innings pitched, ERA, WHIP, and scoreless starts, and he’s second in strikeouts and quality starts.
His 5.9 WAR at FanGraphs lags behind just Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr.(6.5) and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (6.0) in the American League.Alvarez, who was a Triple Crown threat for much of the year, is the -4000 favorite to be named AL MVP.
Schlittler is currently priced at 50/1 at bet365 Sportsbook, making him the third-favorite, sandwiched between Tampa Bay’s Junior Caminero and Witt Jr.Caminero, who leads the American League with 41 home runs, is 14/1.Witt is 125/1.Those odds suggest that the race is over.
At -4000, Alvarez owns a 97.6-percent implied probability.Kalshi has it a shade lower at 89 percent.
If that was the case, why did the Schlitter-for-MVP talks get so loud that his teammates shared their thoughts?The answer is because the right-hander has a legitimate claim to the award.Not only by the numbers, but also by the literal mea...