Super El Nio breaks record months before peak as scientists warn of worst season in 1,000 years

This El Niño will have an epic tantrum.While still months away from reaching its peak, the super El Niño is already shattering temperature records.Data show that the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific has reached 3.07°C (around 5.5 F) — tying the record set by the 2015–16 El Niño — with scientists expecting it to get a lot hotter.“This month (September) is very likely to have the highest monthly anomalies on record,” Zeke Hausfather, co-author of comprehensive climate change reports for the United Nations, told Phys.org in an email.Based on an analysis of 14 different climate models, Hausfather determined that temps could hit a peak of 4.0C (a 7.2F rise) in November and December, making this El Niño the largest in 1,000 years.For reference, any temperature increase above 0.5 C (0.9 F) is considered a regular El Niño while anything over 2 C (3.7 F) is deemed a super El Niño.Hasufather’s figures, detailed in an analysis in Carbon Brief, draw on how much daily sea surface temps in the Niño 3.4 region—an imaginary region in the Pacific— exceed the 30-year average.However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has increasingly adopted a new method, dubbed ONI (Nino3.4), which compares the region’s rate of warming to the entire tropical belt.

This gives a better overall picture of the phenomenon, defined by preternaturally warm temperatures on the Pacific Ocean’s surface.Unfortunately, researchers predict that the record phenomenon could cause catastrophic weather effects.

It’s already being blamed for wildfires fueled by droughts in Indonesia and curbing crucial monsoon rains in India, the Guardian reported.Meanwhile, dry conditions are already pummeling Central America, causing crops and animals to die and reducing water flow in the Panama Canal, prompting a trade slowdown.Meanwhile, California Gov.Gavin Newsom declared a statewide emergency ahead of El Niño-induced winter storms, including floodi...