Hottest El Nio on record could kill up to 451,000 people in six months, scientists claim warning of a deadly new normal

The Super El Niño could impact more than just the thermostat.The warm weather anomaly could cause an estimated 451,000 excess heat-related deaths by February 2027, per a frightening forecast by the Climate Impact Lab.According to the paper, compiled by scientists from the University of Chicago, the Super El Niño will “lead to 44% more extremely hot days than we would expect in a normal year.” The apocalyptic phenomenon has already propelled sea surface temperatures to 3.07°C (around 5.5 F) — tying the record set by the 2015–16 El Niño — with scientists projecting it could become the hottest event in 1,000 years.Understandably, the fallout is expected to be apocalyptic, per the study.Of the over 400,000 projected excess deaths from June through February, 239,000 are forecast to occur in the next six months.However, researchers claim that the toll could be even higher based on predictions that El Niño will hang around until Spring, with residual impacts such as preternaturally high temps and heat-related deaths persisting into next summer.The lion’s share of the forecasted casualties will be concentrated in the “Global South,” per the report.

Nigeria boasts the highest projected death toll with 31,000 additional heat-related deaths from September through February compared to a normal year.Following close behind, per the model, are Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600 estimated excess deaths.Meanwhile, Africa’s arid Sahel region, which comprises Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, is forecast to see 66,800 heat-induced deaths over the next six months.Meanwhile, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to suffer an additional 19,400 deaths combined, according to the predictions.To determine how many additional deaths the El Niño heat could cause, the team analyzed temperature forecasts and historical data on how heat affects mortality in over 24,000 regions across the globe.They noted that the resulting “mortality fore...