The Kremlin is testing Europe‘s limits.After months of covert attacks and sabotage across the continent, leaders are warning that Moscow may be about to grow bolder as it seeks to sow chaos and intimidate allies of Ukraine.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO’s resolve to defend members on its eastern flank or respond to attacks that fall short of all-out war, these officials say, at a time when the U.S.is distracted by other conflicts and weighing reducing its military presence in Europe.
An assessment by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service released Thursday warned that in the coming months Moscow will further intensify its campaign of so-called hybrid warfare, “with greater consequences for the targeted countries than in the past.” It also assessed “a low but growing risk that Russia will launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries bordering Russia.”While Moscow has for years embraced tactics that straddle the threshold of war, a string of increasingly brazen incidents in recent months has alarmed U.S.allies.
‘A bit freaked out’A key moment was the discovery of a Russian drone carrying explosives at an airport in eastern Germany near a Ukrainian aircraft last month.Berlin formally blamed Russia for what it said was a thwarted attack and imposed a diplomatic freeze, though Moscow denied involvement.That incident appears to have changed the mindset about Russia’s growing threat in Europe, said Ed Arnold, a senior associate fellow in international security at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank.
“It just showed that Putin’s risk calculations are getting more liberal,” Arnold said.“Everyone just got a bit freaked out by that, quite frankly.”It was followed by the unexpected visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow, during which NATO was discussed.Incidents have continued to pile up — at defense facilities in Estonia, rail networks in Poland and the po...